一個基于可持續(xù)發(fā)展的
產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化模型



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關(guān)鍵詞可持續(xù)發(fā)展，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，優(yōu)化模型


論文摘要

經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、社會進(jìn)步與環(huán)境保護(hù)是當(dāng)今社會發(fā)展的三大主題，可持續(xù)發(fā)展正是人類在追求其經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)、社會目標(biāo)與生態(tài)環(huán)境目標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)上所提出的嶄新發(fā)展觀。中國在21世紀(jì)的發(fā)展過程中面臨著促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，穩(wěn)定社會就業(yè)以及保護(hù)生態(tài)環(huán)境的三重挑戰(zhàn)，能否成功，不僅取決于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的進(jìn)一步深入，還取決于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化與升級。如果說經(jīng)濟(jì)改革是中國可持續(xù)發(fā)展最基本的驅(qū)動力的話，那么協(xié)調(diào)合理的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)則是可持續(xù)發(fā)展的基本軌道。21世紀(jì)中國面臨的不僅僅是增長與發(fā)展問題，更是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整與優(yōu)化問題。本文以中國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展為背景，提出一個經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的優(yōu)化模型，并以此為基礎(chǔ)，對中國在21世紀(jì)前20年的中長期發(fā)展中，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、就業(yè)變化、污染控制以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)換與調(diào)整的“互動”關(guān)系進(jìn)行了模擬與展望。

Abstract
Economic Growth, Society improvement and Environment Protection are the main themes in the development of Society. It is the brand-new conception of sustainable development that had been put forward by human been in their course of pursuing the goal of economy, society and environment. China will face three challenges of accelerating Economic growth, improving Employment and Protecting Environment in its development in the 21 century and, the success depends both on the deepening of Economy reform and on the optimizing and upgrading of the industrial structure. Economy reform is the basic driving force of China’s sustainable development and the harmonious and reasonable industrial structure is the basic development path. In the 21 century, China will be confronted with not only the issues of Growth and Development, but also of adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure. Based on the sustainable development of China, in this paper, an optimized model is set up for China’s Economic Growth and Industrial Structure adjustment, showing the ‘interactive’ relationship among its Economic growth, Employment Change, pollution Control and industrial structure adjustment in the first two decades of the 21 century.

目錄
一 引言

二 建模背景
三 模型描述
四 模型模擬

五 簡短結(jié)論和主要政策意義